Eric Heginbotham
Foreign Affairs Vol. 80, No. 4 (July/August 2001) (With George Gilboy)
Over the past decade, China's leaders have pursued rapid economic reform while stifling political change. The result today is a rigid state that is unable to cope with an increasingly organized, complex, and robust society. China's next generation of leaders, set to take office in 2002-3, will likely respond to this dilemma by accelerating political reform--unless a new cold war with the United States intervenes.