Barry R. Posen
International Security Vol. 9, No. 3 (Winter 1984-1985) [Republished in Steven E. Miller, ed., Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy: an International Security reader (Princeton University Press, 1985)]
If NATO is to invest its scarce resources wisely in the coming years, if it is to choose intelligently from the menu of possible conventional improvements, it must begin with a careful assessment of the current NATO-Warsaw Pact military balance in Central Europe.